Economics Alumni Lecture: Continuities and Discontinuities in Forecasting: A Tribute to the Research of Herman Stekler (Washington, DC)

Location
The George Washington University
1957 E Street, NW, Room 213
Washington, DC 

6:30pm: Lecture
7:30pm: Networking Reception

Event Description
Please join the Department of Economics for its annual GWU Alumni Lecture Series in Economics featuring Tara Sinclair, Associate Professor of Economics and International Affairs at the George Washington University.  Professor Sinclair will present "Continuities and Discontinuities in Forecasting: A Tribute to the Research of Herman Stekler."

Throughout the history of macroeconomic forecasting, several major themes have remained surprisingly consistent. The failure to forecast economic downturns ahead of time, and to recognize them quickly once they have begun, is perhaps the most significant of these. Professor Herman Stekler was known for insisting that “the cost of a recession is so great that a forecaster should never miss one. Some people argue that turning points are unpredictable. I disagree. I have never had trouble predicting recessions. In fact, I have predicted n+x of the last n recessions.”  

In this presentation Professor Stekler’s frequent co-author, Professor Tara Sinclair, will distill some of the key insights for economic forecasting and policymaking from 60 years of research by Professor Stekler, one of the founders of forecasting, who passed away in September.

A networking reception for alumni and their guests will follow the lecture. The lecture is free and open to GW alumni and friends. Please register your attendance in advance.